September 07th, 23
Social Survey Research Information Co., Ltd.
Social Survey Research Information Co., Ltd.
NEWS
Analysis of the potential for administering new drugs in terms of the number of patients
- from PatientsMap2022JP version -
Allergic rhinitis/hay fever, COVID-19, hypertension, and type 2 diabetes found to be large segments of the market for the administration of new drugs.
The importance of unmet needs for chronic diseases in an aging society is highlighted.
Social Survey Research Information Co., Ltd., which has developed and marketed PatientsMap, a database of patient numbers based on physician surveys, has published analysis results of the marketability of new drug introductions using PatientsMap 2022 Japanese version data.
The results of this study reveal large segments where treatment needs are not fully met even if a therapeutic agent has already been introduced, and where there is potential for administering new drugs.
Analysis Background
In developing new drugs, it is considered necessary to calculate the size of the market for administering new drugs. What diseases can be identified as having a large market for administering new drugs? In this study, we would like to clarify the market potential for administering new drugs in terms of the number of patients by analyzing PatientsMap data.
Analysis Results
Based on the PatientsMap data, the top 10 diseases with the largest potential market size for administering new drugs were found to be seasonal allergic rhinitis/hay fever, novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19), hypertension, type 2 diabetes, osteoarthritis, osteoporosis, dementia, diabetes, glaucoma, and cedar pollinosis.
These diseases are chronic conditions that require long-term treatment, are common among the elderly, and the number of patients is expected to keep increasing as society continues to age. Meanwhile, many of the diseases that were found to have a large market for new drugs are not among the top diseases when analyzed in terms of the demand for new drugs or the percentage of patients who would like new drugs.
[Market size by diseases treated by physicians who have needs for new drugs: Top 20 diseases.]
(from PatientsMap2022JP)
Column1: Estimated number of patients.
Column2: Estimated number of patients to whom physicians who have needs for new drugs would consider administering them.
Column3: Needs for new drugs.
Column4: Percentage of patients who require new drugs.
| Column1 | Column2 | Column3 | Column4 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Disease name | N | N | % | % | Ave | |
| Seasonal allergic rhinitis / hay fever | 7,250,000 | 980,000 | (-14%) | 19% | 51.80% | |
| COVID-19 | 3,120,000 | 940,000 | (-30%) | 37% | 67.10% | |
| Hypertension | 10,680,000 | 830,000 | (-8%) | 12% | 51.20% | |
| Type 2 diabetes | 5,900,000 | 670,000 | (-11%) | 14% | 54.10% | |
| Osteoarthritis | 2,720,000 | 580,000 | (-21%) | 24% | 57.30% | |
| Osteoporosis | 3,200,000 | 580,000 | (-18%) | 19% | 57.50% | |
| Dementia | 1,920,000 | 570,000 | (-30%) | 37% | 70.70% | |
| Diabetes | 6,170,000 | 560,000 | (-9%) | 12% | 54.00% | |
| Glaucoma | 1,270,000 | 500,000 | (-39%) | 32% | 56.90% | |
| Cedar pollen allergy | 4,650,000 | 490,000 | (-11%) | 14% | 54.10% | |
| Low back pain | 3,000,000 | 410,000 | (-14%) | 15% | 61.10% | |
| Alzheimer's disease | 1,270,000 | 400,000 | (-31%) | 36% | 71.50% | |
| Dyslipidemia (Hyperlipidemia) | 6,530,000 | 400,000 | (-6%) | 10% | 53.30% | |
| Dry eye | 1,640,000 | 370,000 | (-23%) | 13% | 57.90% | |
| Sleep disorder | 3,180,000 | 360,000 | (-11%) | 15% | 59.20% | |
| Knee osteoarthritis | 1,880,000 | 360,000 | (-19%) | 20% | 58.70% | |
| Insomnia | 2,780,000 | 310,000 | (-11%) | 15% | 59.10% | |
| Constipation | 4,430,000 | 300,000 | (-7%) | 12% | 55.90% | |
| Atopic dermatitis | 1,430,000 | 290,000 | (-20%) | 20% | 56.70% | |
| Congestive heart failure | 1,620,000 | 270,000 | (-17%) | 21% | 56.30% | |
| Average | 27% | 62.20% | ||||
- Numerical values are in ten thousands.
- Percentages in parentheses in the table represent the percentages assuming the "estimated number of patients" for each disease as 100%.
The results of the above analysis suggest that among the diseases for which there is large market potential for administering new drugs, there is a large number of patients for which several therapeutic agents already exist but they have yet to be sufficiently treated with them. In particular, the fact that diseases that are common among the elderly are at the top of the list suggests that demand for new drugs for these diseases is expected to increase in the future as society continues to age.
While the current development trend of new drug manufacturers is focused on treating cancer and rare diseases with biologics and antibody drugs, the results of this study force us to recognize once again that, among patients with chronic diseases (large segments) that are widely prevalent, the number of patients who need to be treated with new drugs greatly exceeds that of cancer and rare diseases, even if the percentage is low.
What is PatientsMap?
PatientsMap is a large database that surveys, with the cooperation of physicians, about 400 diseases in terms of physician coverage, number of patients, unmet medical needs (diseases for which new drugs are desired, reasons for wanting new drugs, and percentage of patients for whom administering new drugs would be considered), and the activities of real sales reps (in-person) and e-detailing activities of pharmaceutical companies. The same survey frame has been used continuously for more than 10 years since 2010.
Overview of PatientsMap 2022 Japan Version (2022JP)
A survey was conducted of m3 panel physicians.| Target respondents: | : | M3-registered physicians |
|---|---|---|
| Method | : | Online survey |
| Fieldwork period | : | May 10 to September 5, 2022 |
| Sample size collected | : | 20,219 sample |
| Number of conditions surveyed | : | 437 diseases |
| Survey item: | : | Total number of patients (in the past month) Number of patients seen by condition (in the past month) Number of patients who were prescribed drugs by condition (in the past month) Need for new therapy Percentage of patients for whom administering new drugs would be considered Reasons why new drugs are desired by condition Manufacturers that have visited (in the past month) Manufacturers that you have had a remote meeting with one of their sales reps (in the past month) Manufacturer that have provided you with information via the Internet (in the past month) Reliable manufacturers |
Contact Information
| Social Survey Research Information Co., Ltd. | ||
|---|---|---|
| : | patientsmap@ssri.com | |
Social Survey Research Information Co., Ltd.
| Established | April 1982 |
| Capital | 27 million JPY |
| President & CEO | Takashi Makita |
| Number of employees | 137 |
| Location | Head Office NMF Shinjuku East Bldg. 2F, 3F 10-5 Tomihisacho, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 162-0067 JAPAN |
| Osaka office Daimei Bldg. 4F, 4-6-3 Hirano-cho, Chuo-ku, Osaka 541-0046 JAPAN | |
| Affiliate companies | PD Research Co., Ltd. MDB Co. SSRI China Co., Ltd. (overseas subsidiary) SSRI Asia Pacific Co., Ltd. (overseas subsidiary) HIMA Research (overseas affiliate) |
| URL | https://www.ssri.com/ |